Last week the Bush Administration abruptly reversed course and began a pre-election plan to pull out of Iraq before our 2004 election.
Clearly this White House – which had publicly denounced the efficacy of public opinion polls – is transfixed by the meteoric drop in both the President’s approval ratings and in public support for the war in Iraq. And, wary of heading into next fall with GIs dying daily, the White House political operation has determined that Mr. Bush had to begin a withdrawal from Iraq.
Thus the emergency summons to Administrator Paul Bremer to return to the White House for two days of high level talks and the subsequent change in plans: Iraq is now going to hold elections next year before completion of a constitution.
The goal: a sovereign Iraqi government in place by next June – well before our political conventions. Team Bush isn’t stupid: the last thing they want to see here next summer is a daily reminder of the casualties of the Iraq War and more and more articles about amputees and widows.
No, the White House now wants to rejigger their entire election strategy away from Iraq – likely Democratic nominee Howard Dean’s raison d’être – and back on an improving economy. And to do that we need to begin now to scale back our presence in Iraq.
The problem is that the bad guys over there – Saddam disciples and imported terrorists – want to escalate the killing of American troops. This month has seen a dramatic increase in attacks on our GIs. We have lost over 50 troops already in November and the month still has two weeks left.
We know that America’s present enemies know they cannot defeat us militarily. But they crow about the “Somali Model,” based on the unfortunate American intervention in Somalia in 1992-1993. In that case, the unfortunate downing of a Black Hawk helicopter and the humiliating deaths of its crew led to an American pullout. The Iraqi Resistance – and Al Qaeda throughout the Muslim world – today are basing their overall strategy on this Somali Model: inflict enough death and pain on America and the election-conscious politicians will pull out.
And that is exactly what is happening.
In the course of six months – since the May 1 pronouncement of the “end of major combat operations” – this country has gone on a roller coaster of emotions over Iraq. As the President landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln, the polls showed huge public support for the war and for the Commander in Chief.
Then the sporadic killing of our troops began. And in July the President egged on the resistance by saying, “Bring ’em on!”
And “on” they came. Soon it became an almost daily announcement: another American soldier has been killed.
Then came the horrific UN car bombing and the subsequent pulling out of all international organizations. That was followed by other nations backing out of pledges to dispatch troops to Iraq to help us.
All during this time was the steady drumbeat of no WMD found and the fiasco surrounding the Niger nuclear material story.
Then came the Muslim Holy month of Ramadan and the attacks have escalated precipitously. And so have the deaths and injuries to our soldiers.
This White House is absolutely desperate not to repeat the fate of the first Bush White House and go down to defeat after only one term. (All Presidents naturally want to get re-elected; this one feels the pain of defeat personally because 1992 was not that long ago and this President was involved in his father’s re-election campaign.)
So our 2004 elections have determined the timing and composition of the Iraqi government. Unfortunately, our radical Muslim enemies are going to read this pullout as verification of the Somali Model.
No wonder Saddam and Osama issue audiotapes all the time. They are crowing about ‘forcing’ America to pull back and withdraw.
If Iraq falls apart and descends into anarchy and chaos, this chapter in our War on Terror will have been a complete failure.